Manchester Aviation Emissions report 2023

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Executive Summary

Whilst aviation emissions, i.e., emissions from aircraft, are not part of Manchester’s carbon budget, it is recognised that aviation emissions must be tackled as part of ensuring that the city, and the UK overall, play their full part in delivering the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Manchester is aligned to the Climate Change Committee position in that despite aviation emissions not formally being included in UK carbon budgets and the Net Zero target, the primary policy approach to reducing emissions from international aviation should be at the international level supported by domestic policy to focus on supporting low-carbon fuels, managing demand, domestic fleet decarbonisation and developing GHG removals.

This reports focus is on emissions from residents[1] of Manchester taking non-chartered flights from UK or Manchester Airport to estimate the aviation footprint of Manchester people.

The zero-carbon budget for Manchester is tied to science-based targets aimed at limiting global warming to 2°C. However, achieving these targets necessitates reductions in aviation emissions. Advice from the Tyndall Centre suggests maintaining 2018 levels of UK flight emissions until 2030, followed by a decline to zero by 2075. Extrapolating this guidance to Manchester International Airport implies a carbon budget of 125 m tCO₂ from 2018 to 2100, significantly surpassing (over eight times) the city's allocated budget of 15m tCO₂.

Manchester's aviation emissions encompass CO₂ emissions from flights taken by residents departing from Manchester and other UK airports. These estimations rely on passenger numbers, flight destinations, and national datasets, acknowledging the approximation due to limited flight routing and fuel burn details.

UK air traffic, including Manchester Airport, has shown signs of recovery, reaching 75% of 2019 levels by 2022. In the same year, emissions from non-chartered passenger flights departing from Manchester Airport were estimated at 3.05m tCO₂, contributing to approximately 10.7% of UK aviation emissions from passenger flights.

As flights by Manchester residents from all UK airports have nearly doubled since 2021, resulting in an emission of 0.15 m tCO₂, and an estimated 0.13 m tCO₂ emissions from flights are attributed to Manchester, addressing aviation emissions remains pivotal for the city to align with its carbon reduction goals.

Managing aviation emissions presents a critical challenge for Manchester in meeting its carbon reduction targets. Collaboration at the UK level is essential to address this issue while ensuring the city's aviation sector aligns with its environmental commitments.


[1] Residents are defined in this report as Manchester residents travelling by non-chartered aircraft from Manchester Airport or from other UK airports. There may be Manchester businesses travelling but the data does not allow us to distinguish.

Manchester’s Aviation Principles

Manchester’s Climate Change Partnership (MCCP) and Manchester’s Climate Change Agency (MCCA) are responsible for setting the city’s high-level climate change targets – these are contained within The Manchester Climate Change Framework 2020-25, and its 2022 Update, which can be found at: www.manchesterclimate.com/content/2022-update

MCCP and MCCA are also responsible for tracking the city’s progress towards these targets in Emissions Reports (see reports going back to 2013 here: www.manchesterclimate.com/annual-emissions).

Whilst aviation emissions, i.e., emissions from aircraft, are not part of Manchester’s carbon budget, it is recognised that aviation emissions must be tackled as part of ensuring that the city, and the UK overall, play their full part in delivering the Paris Agreement on climate change.

To support the common aim of establishing Manchester Airport, and the city of Manchester, as a national and international leader in sustainable aviation, Manchester Climate Change Partnership has worked together to develop and commit to the following agreement published in the 2022 Update to the Manchester Climate Change Framework:

“To work with the UK Government and other stakeholders to ensure that emissions from fights are kept within a carbon budget for UK aviation that is fully aligned with the Tyndall budget and the Paris Agreement (the “UK Aviation Budget”). This includes fights by Manchester residents, businesses and other organisations, and all fights from airports in which the city has a stake.”

As with the Manchester Climate Change Framework as a whole, the following principles underpin our approach to aviation:

  • The principle of urgency, to ensure that high impact actions are taken in the short term to minimise cumulative emissions and their climate effects.

  • The precautionary principle, to ensure that we are confident of remaining within the UK Aviation Budget by only adopting proven measures, while also supporting research into innovative approaches.

  • The principle of equity, to ensure fair access to transport and an equitable distribution of the remaining global carbon budget.

  • To meet this sub-objective, the 2022 Update to the Manchester Climate Change Framework recommended the following actions:

  • Empower residents, businesses, and other organisations to understand the climate impact of their aviation practices and take action to reduce it.

  • Engage and collaborate with national government, regulatory agencies, other cities, and the industry to ensure aviation emissions remain within the UK Aviation Budget.

  • Monitor progress through emissions reporting and budgeting, track the contribution of mitigation measures, and periodically review the underpinning science.

  • Recommend actions to ensure that the city plays its fair part in keeping aviation emissions within the UK Aviation Budget, while mitigating the risk of redistributing fights, emissions and associated social and economic benefits.

The reporting of aviation emissions by MCCP/MCCA is an integral part of fulfilling the objectives outlined in the third action item.

This report provides an overview of the UK carbon budget and strategies associated with decarbonising the aviation sector at a national level and emissions are extrapolated for Manchester.

In Manchester, aviation emissions are assessed using a methodology developed in 2019 by the aviation subgroup of the Manchester Climate Change Partnership's independent Zero Carbon Advisory Group.

This methodology estimates carbon emissions from all passenger aircraft operating at Manchester Airport by modelling annual fuel consumption for the served flights. It relies on data from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) regarding destinations and passenger numbers.

The usage by local residents is determined using the CAA passenger survey 2017 dataset at both the city and airport levels. This method assumes that Manchester residents travel to destinations similar to the national average passenger, supported by the airport's diverse range of destinations served. To account for the age of the data set, our analysis revises the figures based on national trends in travel.

It's important to note that all data in this report should be considered estimations due to some extrapolation, as specific datasets may be unavailable (such as exact fuel usage for specific flights). Additionally, there is a time lag in national-level data, with the report representing emissions for 2021 and providing a projection for 2022.

UK Aviation Modelling assumptions

  • The Climate Change Committee advised the UK government on the Sixth Carbon Budget, aiming for net zero emissions by 2050. They recommended including international aviation and shipping emissions in this budget, rather than leaving ‘headroom’ for these emissions in carbon budget calculations as had been done in previous statutory carbon budgets.

    The Sixth Carbon Budget, enacted in 2021, aims for a 78% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2037 compared to 1990 levels. Aviation, being difficult to fully decarbonise, is expected to utilise offsetting and negative emissions technologies.

    Under the ‘balanced pathway’ model adopted by the Climate Change Committee, projections for 2050 envision aviation contributing 23m tCO₂e to UK emissions in that year, with measures such as demand management, sustainable aviation fuels, and efficiency improvements playing key roles. These projections are based on assumptions including limited demand with Figure 1, improved sector efficiency, and increased use of biofuel and synthetic jet fuel.

    The overall modelling of this pathway is illustrated in figure 1.

    Figure 1

    Figure 1: sources of abatement in the CCC’s Balanced Net Zero Pathway for the aviation sector

  • The UK Government's own "Jet Zero by 2050" strategy aims to achieve net zero aviation emissions by 2050, with ambitious in-sector targets of 35.4m tCO2e in 2030, 28.4m tCO₂e in 2040, and 19.3m tCO2e in 2050.

    The strategy's "higher ambition scenario" forecasts a 70% increase in demand by 2050, a 2% annual improvement in airline fuel efficiency, and sustainable aviation fuels accounting for 10% of aviation fuel by 2030, 22% by 2040, and 50% by 2050. In this scenario, zero-emission aircraft would comprise 5% of UK air traffic movements by 2040 and 27% by 2050.

    The Jet Zero Strategy modelled assumptions for the ‘higher ambition’ scenario are shown in figure 2 below:

    Figure 2

    Figure 2: The Jet Zero Strategy ‘higher ambition’ scenario

    The strategy aims to reduce the baseline of 52m tCO₂e in 2050 to residual emissions of 19m tCO₂e, with abatement measures including carbon pricing, fuel efficiency improvements, sustainable aviation fuels, and zero-emission aircraft.

  • Sustainable Aviation, representing major UK airports, airlines, and aerospace manufacturers, aims for net zero emissions by 2050. It set interim targets in 2021 and issued an updated forecast in April 2023, stressing the achievement of the industry’s goals was reliant on adequate policy support from the Government .

    Their targets include a 15% reduction in net emissions by 2030 and a 40% reduction by 2040. They plan to achieve this through the adoption of replacement aviation fuels, carbon removal methods, and new low and zero-carbon technologies .

    Their Net Zero Carbon Road-Map envisions reducing the baseline of 67.4m tCO₂e in 2050 to residual emissions of 8.8m tCO₂e, utilising emissions reducing technologies. They anticipate abating emissions through carbon pricing, improvements in airspace and aircraft operations, sustainable aviation fuels, and zero-emission aircraft.

  • Assessment of emissions reduction in the UK reveals significant variations among three models: the CCC Balanced Pathway, Jet Zero Strategy High Ambition Scenario, and Sustainable Aviation Net Zero Carbon Road-Map.

    Table 1

    Table 1: Comparison of CCC Balanced Pathway, Jet Zero Strategy High Ambition Scenario and Sustainable Aviation Net Zero Carbon Road-Map abatements of emissions from UK aviation by 2050 (m tCO₂e)

    The CCC, in their 2023 progress report on emissions , reported that while the Jet Zero Strategy offers greater certainty, there are still risks in meeting aviation emission reduction targets set for various carbon budgets.

    The House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee report notes that variations in emission reduction projections across these strategies diminish overall confidence in their reliability.

    The report recommends collaborative analysis between the government, Climate Change Committee, and Sustainable Aviation to establish consensus on the likely impact of measures on UK aviation emissions up to 2050.

Manchester's Aviation Emissions

This report considers the scale of aviation emissions associated with Manchester and Manchester Airport in the context of the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Manchester Climate Change Framework. Whilst there are a number of greenhouse gases and warming effects associated with air travel, carbon dioxide is the primary driver of long term warming and is the main focus of Manchester’s climate change mitigation efforts.

Manchester’s aviation emissions cover:

  • Emissions from non-chartered departing passenger flights from Manchester Airport.

  • Emissions from flights taken by Manchester residents, regardless of the UK airport they depart from.

  • UK aviation emissions stemming from departing passenger flights across all airports, with a specific focus on the Manchester contribution.

  • Drawing on updates to 2017 passenger data from the Civil Aviation Authority , the Aviation Sub-group has modelled the emissions from all departing passenger flights from Manchester Airport, taking into account the whole duration of the flight.

    Flights and passenger numbers have rebounded in 2022 as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic with emissions at 86.9% of 2019 levels. The year 2019 has been used as the most reflective year for comparison of emissions throughout the report to account for the drop in travel due to the pandemic.

    In 2022, emissions from non-chartered passenger flights departing from Manchester airport, are estimated to be around 3.05m tCO₂ more than a three-fold increase against 2021 levels as passengers returned to the airport, see figure 3 and table 2.

    Figure 3

    Figure 3: Estimate of Emissions from non-chartered passenger flights departing Manchester Airport between 2014-2022 (m tCO₂)

    Table 2

    Table 2: Raw data, estimate of emissions from non-chartered passenger flights departing Manchester Airport between 2014-2022 (m tCO₂).

    Emissions from domestic flights have not rebounded, remaining at only 4.4% of pre-pandemic levels, while flights to the Americas remain at approximately 44.5% of pre-pandemic levels. It's important to note that these figures contribute to a minor portion of emissions from flights departing Manchester Airport, as the majority, 70.0% in 2022, comes from European flights (compared to 63.7% in 2019). These are the journeys that are most easily replaceable by other modes of transport and are a key area of intervention now and in the future.

  • Our analysis also enables us to estimate the aviation footprint of Manchester residents departing from both UK and Manchester airports.

    According to this study, it was found that 0.52% of flights from UK airports originated from Manchester residents.

    From this, we can approximate the emissions from flights taken by Manchester residents across all UK airports to be 0.15m tCO₂. This figure has more than doubled since 2021 (0.07m tCO₂), aligning with the industry's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in increased flights and passenger numbers.

    We can estimate that flights taken by Manchester residents from Manchester airport contribute 0.13m tCO₂.

    Figure 4

    Figure 4 illustrates the overall emissions from all UK airports, providing insight into the proportion contributed by Manchester residents. The figure also presents the total emissions from Manchester Airport and the specific emissions attributed to Manchester residents.

    Air travel activities of individuals residing in Manchester, amount to an aviation footprint of 0.15m tCO₂.

    Manchester residents contribute almost 5% of the emissions from flights departing Manchester Airport.

    Around 89% of all aviation emissions from Manchester residents came from flights departing Manchester airport, indicating that Manchester is the preferred airport to travel from.

    The remaining emissions from Manchester Airport were from residents based in the rest of the North West, Yorkshire & Humber, West Midlands, East Midlands .

  • Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) reports UK aviation emissions with a 2-year lag, leading to projections for 2022. Using 2019 data updated to 2022, factoring in pandemic-related passenger number changes, UK-wide aviation emissions from departing passenger flights are projected to surge by 216% to 28.5m tCO₂ in 2022 from 13.2m tCO₂ in 2021.

    Approximately 10.7% of UK aviation emissions in 2022 are estimated from non-chartered passenger flights departing Manchester Airport.

Addressing Discrepancies in Aviation Data

Discrepancies between the work presented here (by UoM for MCCP) and internal reporting by Manchester Airport Group (MAG) have been identified and discussed. The analysis undertaken by UoM is based upon fleet assumptions developed in 2016 and aircraft fuel burn data from 2015. It was noted that UoM estimates were higher than MAG’s internal reporting for emissions from flights departing Manchester Airport. Despite these differences, the overall trends of these datasets remain broadly in line with each other.

Manchester Airport has agreed to explore data sharing with the Manchester Climate Change Partnership in future to close any gap in reporting and to work towards ensuring that reporting is as practicable and accurate as possible.

Manchester Airport Group’s own environmental reporting, which is aligned with their financial years and based on specific aircraft operating at the airport along with their flight distances and durations, is available on their website.

Acknowledgements

With special thanks to Dr. Joe Blakey, Lecturer at the University of Manchester, for his invaluable contribution to the analysis presented in this report.

Additionally, we thank the Manchester Airport Group (MAG) for their active participation, input, and commitment to collaboration, which has significantly enriched our understanding of the aviation sector. Their ongoing support and dedication to improving future data will contribute to the continued refinement and reliability of our research.

Together, the Manchester Climate Change Partnership’s Zero Carbon Advisory Group have provided independent challenge to the report:

Dr Ali Abbas Greater Manchester Renewables 

Simeran Bachra Associate Director, Anthesis 

Prof Paul Hooper Research Lead, Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University

Dr Christopher Jones Knowledge Exchange Fellow, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Manchester